The Uk Election - Battleground Map

The Daily Telegraph has released a Google Map of the marginal seats inwards the U.K. election. The Telegraph's map divides the dry reason into rubber constituencies (seats that are probable to vote for the incumbent political political party inwards the seat) together with marginal constituencies (seats that powerfulness alter hands).

Unfortunately The Telegraph has non explained the methodology they used (they tell the map is based on Research yesteryear the Electoral Reform Society) to orbit upwards one's heed which are rubber seats together with which are marginals. The accompanying article mentions seats which accept a long history of voting for a detail political political party only I would endure surprised if that is the criteria they used for determining marginal seats.

The map must endure based either on visit polls or on the votes cast inwards the 2010 full general election (or on approximately combination of the two). My guess is that it is based on visit polls, which is why Labour seats inwards Scotland together with Liberal Democrat seats inwards the South West are existence shown every bit marginal on the map (many of these seats wouldn't endure marginal based on the 2010 election). In either representative the Electoral Reform Party has to accept made an arbitrary sentence telephone phone every bit to what betoken a spot swings from existence a rubber spot to existence a marginal (there accept been approximately large outliers inwards recent polls then it would endure useful to know which polls accept been used every bit well).

However the map is withal useful every bit a full general conduct to which U.K. seats are most probable to orbit upwards one's heed the effect of the U.K. full general election inwards 3 weeks time. The large publish of seats inwards Scotland (many of which await probable moving from Labour to SNP) together with inwards the South West (some of which await similar moving from Lib Dem to Conservative) are probable to accept a large acquit upon on the U.K. election together with what await similar existence interesting discussions later on the election almost which political parties volition separate a coalition.

Via: Visual Loop - Digital Cartography (93)